Macroeconomic & Geopolitical

Summer Boom Meets COVID Concerns

July 2021 – 3 min read
Technical factors, perceived Fed hawkishness, the Delta variant, and U.S. infrastructure talks led to a volatile week in markets, which should remain near-term amid COVID concerns and until monetary policy clears up in fall. Solid economic data supports our strong-growth outlook.

Watchlist

Arrows indicate consensus forecast compared to the previous period. Local dates of release.
 

U.S.

  • The FOMC meeting next week will get attention given the upward surprise in inflation, but we don’t expect any change in signaling future plans for tapering asset purchases.
  • The advance estimate of Q2 GDP comes out July 29, while the Employment Cost Index will show if wage pressures are increasing.
     

Europe

  • We will watch consumer and business confidence, particularly given the proliferating Delta variant. Retail sales data in major economies will show consumers’ strength this summer.
  • The release of Q2 GDP on July 30 should highlight the strength of Europe’s rebound.
     

Asia Pacific

  • Japan activity data should show a sequential bounce, with the industrial sector remaining robust given resilient exports. All eyes will also be on the Tokyo Olympics, which officially open July 23 amid rising cases.
  • We’ll see whether the spread of the Delta variant is affecting China Non- Manufacturing PMI.

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Matteo Cominetta

Director, Economist

Agnès Belaisch

Managing Director, Chief European Strategist

Bonnie David

Assistant

Christian Floro

Associate Director

Kathryn Asher

Associate Director, Economist

Christopher Smart, PhD, CFA

Chief Global Strategist & Head of the Barings Investment Institute

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