Macroeconomic & Geopolitical

No Liftoff on the Horizon

June 2020 – 3 min read
The Fed Funds rate is set to remain at its zero-lower bound for several years, while the BOE and BOJ assess current policy next week, and more trade deals appear on the horizon.

Watchlist

Arrows indicate consensus forecast compared to the previous period. Local dates of release.
 

U.S.

  • Retail sales are set to show improvement in May. Higher-frequency credit and debit card data have shown meaningful rises in spending over the month, aided heavily by stimulus check and unemployment insurance—particularly among the lower-income cohorts.
  • Though remaining at low levels, manufacturing data is set to improve from April lows as restrictions ease and domestic demand improves.

Europe

  • The MPC may expand the Asset Purchase Facility at the BOE meeting on June 17, though will likely refrain from cutting rates at this month’s meeting.

Asia Pacific

  • The BOJ will assess the impacts of the measures already implemented at their two-day meeting ending on June 16, though they are expected to keep rates unchanged.
  • China activity data is set to improve further in May as domestic demand strengthens.

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Christopher Smart, PhD, CFA

Chief Global Strategist & Head of the Barings Investment Institute

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