Macroeconomic & Geopolitical

Europe is Readying For Their Summer Arrivals

May 2021 – 3 min read
European economic data is surprising to the upside, pointing to a strong Q2 rebound. In the U.S., the release of pent-up demand is leading the service sector to take off. In Asia, further progress in vaccination campaigns should trigger a more balanced recovery in the region.

Watchlist

Arrows indicate consensus forecast compared to the previous period. Local dates of release.
 

U.S.

  • Job gains are set to accelerate in May, consistent with improvement in higher frequency data, as the economy continues to reopen.
  • ISM manufacturing and services indices for May are set to remain strong. Easing restrictions will support services, while supply chain issues will weigh on input prices.
     

Europe

  • All eyes will be on the EZ CPI print for May. Base effects and other temporary factors should propel headline inflation near the ECB target of 2%. A print higher than that would likely stoke renewed fears of runaway inflation.
  • EZ retail sales should confirm the upswing as economies fully reopen.
     

Asia Pacific

  • China PMIs for May should show continued strength in manufacturing, fueled by robust global demand.
  • The April 23 State of Emergency may weigh slightly on Japan retail sales for April, while Industrial Production should remain strong amid still-strong exports.

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Matteo Cominetta

Director, Economist

Agnès Belaisch

Managing Director, Chief European Strategist

Max Bennett

Analyst

Christian Floro

Associate Director

Kathryn Asher

Associate Director, Economist

Christopher Smart, PhD, CFA

Chief Global Strategist & Head of the Barings Investment Institute

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