Read what the Fed Chair was actually thinking as he read his script.

The hawks fluttered their wings this week, leading yields to rise, equities to fall, and markets to reprice rate expectations. The BoE is more concerned about growth, while the Fed has a singular focus on inflation. China and Japan remain accommodative, watching PMIs next week.

Another 75bps and more hawkish talk from Jerome Powell. Markets reacted swiftly to signals that more large increases are coming—more than they had priced in. See how this frontloading by central banks aligns with our central scenarios and expectations for the coming year.

Data and expectations continue to drive markets, which have priced in a 75bp hike from the FOMC, though some foresee more; expect 50bps from the BoE given concerns about inflation and energy prices. In China, mounting worries about growth and weak trade are elevating concerns.

The global economy remained largely resilient in the first half of 2022, despite war in Eastern Europe, commodity shortages, and inflation. However, this is leading most major central banks to turn increasingly hawkish and frontload rate hikes which should weigh on growth.

Waiting for the U.S. Labor Force Participation Rate to rebound? Demographic trends and the graying population will likely make a full return difficult to achieve.

It’s not a pretty outlook, but it’s important to keep thinking at least one or two moves ahead.

Here come the rate hikes. The upward surprise in euro area inflation and Jay Powell’s speech in Jackson Hole confirmed the ECB and Fed are both likely looking at 75bp hikes this month, and markets increased expectations as a result. Meanwhile, China reacts to new lockdown measures.

Mixed data is fueling debate about underlying economic strength and recession odds. Meanwhile, markets this week await Powell’s speech at Jackson Hole. Elsewhere, Chinese policymakers took steps to address rising risks to the outlook. Eyes will be on Nord Stream 1 next week.