For better or worse, the path of this year’s U.S. Consumer Price Index will determine the level of markets.

In the flood of market data, you could do worse than keeping your eye on these as you assess the odds of a ‘softish landing’.

If you thought this year was difficult, just wait. The good news is that the extreme outcomes investors worried about through most of 2022 look less likely for 2023.

This year’s choices were hardly simple, but economic policymakers in China, Europe and the United States face much trickier decisions in 2023.

Jerome Powell surely has a holiday wish list, especially facing a new year of slower growth, rising prices and inverted yield curves.

The recession will be painful, but the “old continent” is proving surprisingly adept at facing new challenges

A downside surprise in U.S. CPI led to a market rally amid hopes of a Fed pivot. Meanwhile, U.S. midterm elections suggest a divided Congress is ahead. Elsewhere, eyes will be on the U.K. Fiscal Statement next week.

While the COVID-19 pandemic disrupted global food markets, the Russian invasion of Ukraine has delivered a much bigger shock that has since been aggravated by drought and food export restrictions. However, some relief is possible if market forces are allowed to work again.

It’s more or less clear where investors think the world is headed, but they are surely missing something.