The Barings Investment Institute conducts proprietary research to help our teams make the most of the firm’s unique expertise in public and private markets around the world, while exploring the forces that shape long-term investment and capital decisions.

Macroeconomic & Geopolitical

The Risks Ahead That No One Fully Understands

The economy may return to more “normal” patterns next year, but it will also bring hazards we have never seen before.

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Macroeconomic & Geopolitical

Opening the Tap: Opportunities in Regulated Water Utilities

The need to bring capital to the nation’s water utility systems is clear: Deteriorated water infrastructure affects both the population and the environment.

White Paper - 20 min read

Shaking Off The Third-Quarter Slowdown

While U.S. consumer spending in Q3 is set to slow notably from the strong Q2 pace, the upward surprise in September retail sales suggests it has room for a pick-up in Q4.

The Week Ahead - 3 min read

Macroeconomic & Geopolitical

The Brave New World

Supply chain disruptions persist, making the global reopening much less smooth. Contagious variants still weigh on activity, and vaccination levels in major emerging markets have progressed marginally. An energy price shock has added to the unpleasant mix.

Monthly Macro Dashboard - 10 min read

Macroeconomic & Geopolitical

Gas Shocks Hurt, But Not For Long

For now, gas reserves accumulated at lower prices, government controls, and ample consumer savings will go a long way to mitigate the shock, and, at this stage, does not materially affect our expectations for growth next year.

Research Note - 3 min read

Macroeconomic & Geopolitical

When “Transitory” Becomes a “Swear Word”

The debate rages on around how best to describe current inflationary pressures, but some synonym for “not lasting” still fits best.

Leading Thoughts - 3 min read

Macroeconomic & Geopolitical

Stagflation Fears Send Markets an Early Fright

The upward surprise in U.S. CPI and rising oil prices led markets to pull forward rate hike expectations, leading to flattening in the U.S. yield curve. Moreover, higher breakevens and lower real yields suggest markets are increasingly concerned about stagflation in the U.S.

The Week Ahead - 3 min read

Macroeconomic & Geopolitical

How to Invest in the Upside Down Cycle

Policymakers’ “whatever it takes” motto is designed to mitigate risks of an early recession. They will support a reacceleration of activity if an incomplete recovery makes the economy too frail to survive a downturn.

Kaleidoscope - 3 min read

Macroeconomic & Geopolitical

Congress Sets New Deadline, So Do Markets

A general sense of risk-off dominated early in the week as markets faced a “wall of worry.” Lingering concerns over China regulations, stalemates over raising the U.S. debt ceiling, and the stunning spike and volatility surrounding energy prices all weighed on market sentiment.

The Week Ahead - 3 min read

Macroeconomic & Geopolitical

America (Probably) Won’t Default, Although It’s Not Yet Clear How

With Republicans having vowed not to vote to suspend the debt ceiling, it’s still not clear what legislative vehicle raising the debt ceiling will take, or when it may pass.

Research Note - 3 min read

Macroeconomic & Geopolitical

China Props Up Its Roof, With Cash

Despite the rally in energy prices, U.S. inflation expectations remain range bound, in line with our central scenario of transitory price pressures. Instead, driving the move higher in U.S. 10-year yields, were real yields and the term premium.

The Week Ahead - 3 min read

Macroeconomic & Geopolitical

Will the Pandemic End Secular Stagnation?

The forces that drove rates, inflation, and growth lower for the last four decades remain as strong as ever, but there is hope for change.

Leading Thoughts - 3 min read

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