Macroeconomic & Geopolitical

War & Pestilence

März 2022 – 3 min read

Military and economic responses to Russia’s war in Ukraine remain at the top of the watch list, as disruptions in energy and agriculture flows add to inflation pressures and worries about growth.

Watchlist

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Arrows indicate consensus forecast compared to the previous period. Local dates of release.

U.S.
  • We will watch the FOMC meeting minutes for further insights on the path ahead for monetary policy tightening.
  • With the end of fiscal stimulus and continued rise in prices, we will look for consumer credit to increase in February.
  • We’re expecting Biden may announce that Americans in unfriendly states must pay their taxes in rubles.
Europe
  • Military and economic responses to Russia’s war in Ukraine remain at the top of the watch list, as disruptions in energy and agriculture flows add to inflation pressures and worries about growth.
  • We are watching whether the EA February PPI hits a new record high, as national numbers suggest it may.
  • EA February retail sales should signal if lifting Omicron restrictions helped service sectors.
Asia Pacific
  • Japan wage growth is expected to moderate in February. With inflation projected to hit the BOJ’s 2% target in April amid inflationary pressures from food and energy, focus will be on whether any sustained increases in wage pressures materialize.
  • The China private services PMIs for March is expected to fall back into contraction amid the latest COVID wave there.

Kathryn Asher

Associate Director, Economist

Agnès Belaisch

Managing Director, Chief European Strategist

Matteo Cominetta

Director, Economist

Bonnie David

Assistant

Christian Floro

Associate Director

Anna Hanley-Walsh

Analyst

Christopher Smart, PhD, CFA

Chief Global Strategist & Head of the Barings Investment Institute

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