The Barings Investment Institute conducts proprietary research to help our teams make the most of the firm’s unique expertise in public and private markets around the world, while exploring the forces that shape long-term investment and capital decisions.
Energy Fuels European Inflation & Rate Fears
U.S. labor demand remains strong but has likely passed the peak imbalance with supply, while the Fed has reaffirmed its prioritization of inflation over growth. Elsewhere, talks of greater hikes by the ECB followed inflation surprises in Europe. All eyes are on U.S. CPI next week.
The Inflation Playbook
How does today's inflation compare to history and how are higher CPI numbers impacting economic growth? What can central bankers do to combat inflation? And how can investors navigate this environment? Dr. Christopher Smart weighs in on these questions and more.
Listening for the Tectonic Shifts
Salient developments will shape financial markets over the next year, but listen for sounds of more structural shifts in the economic and political order as well.
Just What Will Break First?
Tighter policy will eventually tame prices, but it’s still hard to see a U.S. recession anytime soon.
More China Lockdowns May Bring More Slowdowns
China’s zero-COVID policy should be a significant headwind to growth, with its impact likely weighing more on consumption than production. Nevertheless, more logistical delays could disrupt manufacturing activity in the months ahead and add to global inflationary pressures.
The Last Reliable Buoy
War and pandemic have disrupted recent patterns of prices and yields, but long-term inflation expectations remain in line—for now.
Hoping for the Best, Preparing for the Worst
We’ve officially embarked on a very peculiar tightening cycle—one in which inflation is at levels more associated with the peak of the hiking cycle, and not the start.
War & Pestilence
Military and economic responses to Russia’s war in Ukraine remain at the top of the watch list, as disruptions in energy and agriculture flows add to inflation pressures and worries about growth.
Is Russia's Invasion Inflationary or Deflationary?
Prices are headed higher for now, but this time they will have their own moderating impact on demand.