One year since the inception of our Stagflation Shock scenario, the global economy continues to face elevated inflation and falling growth. Both are slowing, but they are slowing—slowly. And the descent has not been smooth.

U.S. labor demand remains strong but has likely passed the peak imbalance with supply, while the Fed has reaffirmed its prioritization of inflation over growth. Elsewhere, talks of greater hikes by the ECB followed inflation surprises in Europe. All eyes are on U.S. CPI next week.

How does today's inflation compare to history and how are higher CPI numbers impacting economic growth? What can central bankers do to combat inflation? And how can investors navigate this environment? Dr. Christopher Smart weighs in on these questions and more.

Salient developments will shape financial markets over the next year, but listen for sounds of more structural shifts in the economic and political order as well.

Tighter policy will eventually tame prices, but it’s still hard to see a U.S. recession anytime soon.

China’s zero-COVID policy should be a significant headwind to growth, with its impact likely weighing more on consumption than production. Nevertheless, more logistical delays could disrupt manufacturing activity in the months ahead and add to global inflationary pressures.

War and pandemic have disrupted recent patterns of prices and yields, but long-term inflation expectations remain in line—for now.

We’ve officially embarked on a very peculiar tightening cycle—one in which inflation is at levels more associated with the peak of the hiking cycle, and not the start.

Military and economic responses to Russia’s war in Ukraine remain at the top of the watch list, as disruptions in energy and agriculture flows add to inflation pressures and worries about growth.