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Macroeconomic & Geopolitical

Weekly Update April 12, 2019

12 April 2019 - 5 min read

Cuts to global growth, a reaffirmation of global oil demand growth and the unending narrative of Brexit.


Global Growth: The IMF cut its 2019 global growth forecast .2 to 3.3% due to short-term uncertainties, the slowest pace since the financial crisis. The 2020 growth forecast remained unchanged at 3.6%. However, growth in the second half of 2019 is expected to increase, fueled by policy accommodation from major economies and fiscal and monetary stimulus in China.

Oil: The IEA reaffirmed its global oil demand growth forecast of 1.4 million bpd this year, based on expectations for strong consumption from China and India. Downside risks were noted, given uncertainty around the global economic outlook and differing views on the level of oil prices. The IEA expects crude inventories to continue declining for the rest of the year.

Brexit Update: The EU agreed to offer the U.K. a Brexit extension until October 31, with a June 3 review at the EU summit. The extension is conditional on the U.K participating in European elections on May 23. A failure to vote would trigger the U.K. departing the EU on June 1.


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