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Macroeconomic & Geopolitical

China in the Red, Fed Minutes Due, The Week Ahead Has News For You

13 February 2020 - 3 min read

China pushes on, despite virus, as it continues implementing the trade deal while we watch flash PMIs to measure damage and OPEC+ is bracing for impact.


Arrows indicate consensus forecast compared to the previous period.


  • The U.S. housing market is expected to maintain its rosy performance. The NAHB housing market index should remain near its cyclical high, and elevated demand should be reflected in the permits print. However, it won’t be surprising if housing starts to take a step back in January after surging in December due to warm weather.


  • German ZEW Survey had a strong rebound as trade tensions eased. However, we are watching to see if the downside risk of the coronavirus is affecting confidence.
  • February flash Markit Manufacturing PMIs will give a first glimpse of how the coronavirus outbreak is affecting manufacturing across Europe.

Asia Pacific

  • Japan GDP will likely contract in 4Q19, weighed down by the tax hike and tsunami.

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