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Macroeconomic & Geopolitical

Gold at the End of the Government’s Rainbow

19 March 2020 - 3 min read

Initial claims show the first impact on the U.S. labor market and are likely to increase, the second U.S. stimulus package is in the books and a third is on the way while the ECB announces a Pandemic Emergency Purchase Program.


Arrows indicate consensus forecast compared to the previous period. Local dates of release.


  • Initial claims will likely increase next week as the COVID-19 outbreak weighs on the U.S. labor market. Moreover, as the government strengthened unemployment insurance benefits in the U.S., this will add upward pressure to this data going forward, as those impacted apply for benefits.
  • Personal spending likely held up well in February, particularly as this was prior to the escalation in COVID-19 cases in the U.S., but should drop off after that.


  • The March flash Markit PMIs will shed light on the magnitude of the impact the COVID-19 outbreak is having across European economies.

Asia Pacific

  • Japan’s preliminary manufacturing PMI is likely to deteriorate further, as the economy—which was already hurting—is weighed down by the virus.

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