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Macroeconomic & Geopolitical

Congress Sets New Deadline, So Do Markets

7 October 2021 - 3 min read

A general sense of risk-off dominated early in the week as markets faced a “wall of worry.” Lingering concerns over China regulations, stalemates over raising the U.S. debt ceiling, and the stunning spike and volatility surrounding energy prices all weighed on market sentiment.

Watchlist

Arrows indicate consensus forecast compared to the previous period. Local dates of release.
 

U.S.

  • The September CPI is likely to remain elevated amid stickier transitory factors, such as protracted supply chain bottlenecks. We will watch for the underlying drivers of the headline figure.
  • The October University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index should help reveal if improving COVID trends will aid a rebound in consumer confidence and spending in the fourth quarter.
     

Europe

  • Eurozone industrial production for August is likely to moderate. We will watch whether supply disruptions are affecting other EZ countries as much as they are impacting Germany.
     

Asia Pacific

  • China Aggregate Financing and Loan Growth should stabilize as authorities fine-tune policies to hedge growing downside risks to growth; government bond issuance should prove to be supportive. 
  • China CPI should remain subdued as food prices continue to weigh on prices. Meanwhile, PPI should edge higher amid broad increases in commodity prices. 
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