Despite the rally in energy prices, U.S. inflation expectations remain range bound, in line with our central scenario of transitory price pressures. Instead, driving the move higher in U.S. 10-year yields, were real yields and the term premium.
Arrows indicate consensus forecast compared to the previous period. Local dates of release.
- We will watch the September employment report, given the end of supplemental unemployment insurance benefits on September 6 and still-elevated COVID cases. While it may be too soon to see the full impact of expiring benefits, the pace of job gains is expected to pick up compared with August.
- Debates over the debt ceiling and infrastructure packages will be monitored closely. While there are many moving assumptions behind the target, the Treasury expects to reach the debt limit on October 18.
- EZ retail sales for August will hopefully shed more light on consumer health, after some volatile months contradicted very solid consumer confidence.
- German industrial production and orders for August will give more detail on the ongoing supply-side disruption there.
- OPEC+ will meet October 4 as several members struggle to raise output, while importing nations pressure the group to increase production and put a lid on prices.
- Markets in China will be closed October 1–7 to celebrate National Day Golden Week. An important week for both tourism and real estate sales, the holiday will help indicate consumer sentiment on both the property sector and the pandemic.
- Skewed toward smaller firms, the Caixin China Services PMI should give an indication of whether the government’s targeted support measures are having an effect.