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Macroeconomic & Geopolitical

Watch For More Inflation Jitters

25 March 2021 - 3 min read

Markit flash PMIs show that, in the U.S., easing of restrictions, vaccine rollout, and fiscal stimulus are aiding the rebound in manufacturing and services sectors. However, supply chain shortages are causing a rise in manufacturing input prices on both sides of the Atlantic.

Watchlist

Arrows indicate consensus forecast compared to the previous period. Local dates of release.
 

U.S.

  • The March Employment Report is expected to show an acceleration in job growth as restrictions ease and vaccine rollout increases. While this is a welcomed sign, the labor market remains far from healed.
  • Housing prices should continue to rise given limited supply and elevated demand.
     

Europe

  • Inflation data for March could accelerate but will stay well below the ECB’s target. An upside surprise would reignite the debate on the fair level of yields.
  • We will watch for supply decisions at the OPEC+ meeting. Demand is increasing in some regions, but renewed restrictions could limit any surge.
     

Asia Pacific

  • China PMIs for March are expected to improve as internal demand recovers and external demand from the U.S. increases.
  • Japan activity data for February will likely be mixed given states of emergency throughout the month. However, data should improve as restrictions ease and vaccine distribution begins.
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