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Macroeconomic & Geopolitical

Too Hot? Too Cold? Maybe Just Right

13 May 2021 - 3 min read

In the U.S., inflation surprised to the upside. In Europe, while U.K. 1Q21 GDP showed concerning signs, the outlook is turning brighter. Elsewhere, commodity prices boosting producer prices in China does not warrant any aggressive monetary tightening.


Arrows indicate consensus forecast compared to the previous period. Local dates of release.


  • Housing market data should remain strong as demand continues to outstrip supply.
  • Expect May Flash PMIs to remain robust with reopenings and a consumer boom.
  • Republicans and Democrats have until May 31 to reach a stimulus deal.


  • EZ Flash PMIs for May will show how strong Q2 will be in Europe. After very solid numbers (and positive surprises) in March and April, another strong number is needed for the eurozone to show it is turning the corner.

Asia Pacific

  • China activity data for April should moderate amid fading base-effects. Expect retail sales to improve on a two-year CAGR basis as consumption recovers.
  • Japan 1Q21 GDP should decline given renewed restrictions while Flash PMIs will show how Q2 is faring.

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