Chinese growth has been bumpy this year but we remain upbeat on the outlook. In the U.S., excess savings, pent-up demand, and the labor market recovery should support consumer spending. In Europe, the likely boost to inflation data from base effects should be temporary.
Arrows indicate consensus forecast compared to the previous period. Local dates of release.
- Keep an eye on the JOLTS (Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey) data for May. The faster-than-anticipated reopening means labor demand in certain segments is outpacing supply, causing indicators such as JOLTS data to show a tight labor market, despite substantial slack. These pressures are likely temporary.
- FOMC meeting minutes for the June 16 meeting are scheduled to be released Wednesday, July 7, following the median dot’s unexpected shift.
- We will watch the final June European PMIs for lingering momentum, given the early, impressive levels. The EZ manufacturing PMI is already above 60, and the reopening and more travel should support the services sector.
- China money and loan growth will help assess the managed normalization policymakers are aiming for, especially in real estate. Medium- and longer-term corporate loan growth will also be indicative of the appetite for additional private investment spending, given the healthy profits picture.
- China inflation data for June will likely be benign, with producer prices expected to ease somewhat, given the drop in commodity prices and decline in the purchasing price subcomponent in the latest PMI data.