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Macroeconomic & Geopolitical

Policy Makers Keep the Pedal to the Metal

9 April 2020 - 3 min read

Record-high initial claims show lingering unemployment pains, the oil deal spurs trading and governments continue incubating new fiscal stimulus packages to keep the global economy alive.


Arrows indicate consensus forecast compared to the previous period. Local dates of release.


  • Initial jobless claims will likely remain elevated. States are still working through a backlog of initial claims and volumes remain high as companies continue to reduce payrolls amid expanding mass shutdowns. The continuing rise in initial claims suggests the April unemployment rate will reach a record high well over 10%.
  • Regional manufacturing PMIs will likely dwindle further as the U.S. manufacturing sector feels the pain of weaker demand.


  • The New Car Registrations for March will provide a measure of how deep discretionary spending has dropped in Europe, while February’s Industrial Production numbers should be soft as virus-related shutdowns just started then.

Asia Pacific

  • China’s activity data, such as retail sales, property investment, fixed assets, and industrial production, will likely show large declines for March. However, there should be some improvement in daily coal consumption and property sales as the economy slowly re-opens.

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