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Macroeconomic & Geopolitical

Deal or No Deal?

8 October 2020 - 3 min read

Several nations around the world await deals, whether it is another fiscal stimulus package or a trade agreement between the U.K. and EU. Global inflation data is likely to remain contained, and U.S. September retail sales are expected to post another modest rise.


Arrows indicate consensus forecast compared to the previous period. Local dates of release.


  • Inflation data is expected to continue to remain soft, aligning with the FOMC’s projection for remaining at their zero lower bound through 2023.
  • Retail sales are expected to post another modest rise in September, aided by the labor market recovery and consumers spending pent-up savings. Meanwhile, eyes are on the October preliminary University of Michigan consumer sentiment.


  • Brexit was supposed to take top billing when the EU Council meets October 15 and 16 in Brussels, but agreement delays have made it clear that negotiations will continue, making COVID and the 2050 carbon neutrality agenda the new priority.

Asia Pacific

  • China and Japan inflation data are expected to remain contained in September. China exports will likely increase in September as external demand improves. 

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